Do oil price shocks drive systematic risk premia in stock markets? A novel investment application


Demirer R., POLAT O., Sokhanvar A.

Research in International Business and Finance, vol.73, 2025 (SSCI) identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 73
  • Publication Date: 2025
  • Doi Number: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2024.102591
  • Journal Name: Research in International Business and Finance
  • Journal Indexes: Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, EconLit
  • Keywords: Equity market, Factor investing, Oil price shocks, Risk premia
  • Bilecik Şeyh Edebali University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of oil price shocks on factor returns in a set of 62 stock markets. Oil price shocks capture significant predictive information regarding the size and direction of factor returns in global markets, depending on the market classification and nature of oil shock. Oil supply and precautionary demand shocks possess the greatest predictive power over risk premia, particularly for value and momentum. We argue that time varying investor sentiment and the flexibility of firms to respond to economic shocks drive the responses of factors to oil shocks. More importantly, a conditional global factor investing strategy wherein the investment positions are tilted towards factor-based portfolios, conditional on the size and direction of the oil price shock, yields significant improvements in returns. Our findings show that smart beta strategies can be significantly improved by conditioning factor positions based on the size and direction of oil market shocks.